CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2022-03-29T15:45:16Z
## Message ID: 20220329-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220329-AL-001), now simulated with CME with ID 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO A and STEREO B. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2022-03-31T07:24Z and STEREO B at 2022-03-31T01:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-03-31T04:12Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
   

Updated CME parameters are:

1: Start time of the event: 2022-03-28T12:09Z.

Estimated speed: ~662 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 12/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001


2: Start time of the event: 2022-03-28T20:23Z.

Estimated speed: ~760 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 50 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 3/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001, 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220328_172000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

The CME with ID 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001 is associated with M4.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T10:58:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T11:29Z, SEP at STEREO A with ID 2022-03-28T12:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-001, 20220328-AL-002), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T12:45:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-003, 20220328-AL-004), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2022-03-28T13:25:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20220328-AL-005, 20220328-AL-006), and SEP at SOHO with ID 2022-03-28T13:44:00-SEP-001.

The CME with ID 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001 is associated with M1.0 flare with ID 2022-03-28T19:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-03-28T19:23Z.

Both CMEs and associated flares originated from Active Region 12975. 

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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